Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.799712 0.918742 1.045657 1.190637 1.351242 1.523283 1.721076
2025-03-02 0.586109 0.737501 0.910374 1.120815 1.368420 1.648827 1.988635
2025-03-09 0.458233 0.629784 0.838874 1.108768 1.443920 1.842301 2.347147
2025-03-16 0.353304 0.531877 0.764388 1.082301 1.497954 2.014818 2.697044
2025-03-23 0.291519 0.478980 0.738730 1.113101 1.625566 2.288347 3.194149
2025-03-30 0.220892 0.400243 0.666296 1.071873 1.654153 2.437882 3.546795
2025-04-06 0.172420 0.344515 0.617422 1.056207 1.714585 2.633389 3.974246
2025-04-13 0.132261 0.293027 0.566152 1.029381 1.755114 2.803694 4.379276
2025-04-20 0.107858 0.263201 0.544276 1.044183 1.857349 3.067609 4.931373
2025-04-27 0.085768 0.231974 0.514451 1.041630 1.931712 3.295337 5.445583
2025-05-04 0.070412 0.210307 0.497820 1.058646 2.037818 3.576876 6.054564
2025-05-11 0.057121 0.189210 0.478319 1.067571 2.130551 3.842995 6.654642
2025-05-18 0.042760 0.161121 0.440715 1.040860 2.165149 4.027841 7.154696
2025-05-25 0.030101 0.131859 0.393894 0.989195 2.150453 4.132071 7.536169
2025-06-01 0.023115 0.115897 0.373364 0.986873 2.224162 4.386653 8.170712
2025-06-08 0.017036 0.099459 0.347562 0.969367 2.267422 4.592301 8.737261
2025-06-15 0.014054 0.092777 0.345278 1.002877 2.411528 4.980453 9.623559
2025-06-22 0.009794 0.077544 0.315452 0.968981 2.419026 5.128528 10.115895
2025-06-29 0.007123 0.067212 0.296618 0.957641 2.470356 5.357189 10.754908
2025-07-06 0.004946 0.057036 0.274885 0.935223 2.495728 5.538941 11.320552
2025-07-13 0.003821 0.051994 0.268497 0.950819 2.602950 5.877420 12.172442
2025-07-20 0.002776 0.045980 0.256664 0.949920 2.673616 6.150163 12.919031
2025-07-27 0.002123 0.042123 0.251622 0.966894 2.785501 6.507382 13.830584